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BUISNESS & MARKETS columbian.com » Business » US/World Business  

Gas prices jump, but increase could level off; oil falls


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Apr 24, 3:46 PM EDT
By JOHN WILEN
AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gasoline prices shot up to yet another record at the pump Thursday, while some analysts said the sharp price increases of recent days could soon level off although gas will continue to rise. Crude oil prices, meanwhile, fell more than $2 a barrel as the dollar gained strength against the euro.

At the pump, the average national price of a gallon of regular gas jumped 2.3 cents overnight to $3.556 a gallon, according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices have risen nearly 14 cents in one week.

Gas prices have advanced sharply in recent days partly because refiners have been switching over from selling winter grade gasoline to the more expensive but less polluting form of the fuel the government requires them to sell in the summer. That process, which made winter grade fuel more scarce, is nearly complete now, suggesting that price increases could slow.

"That was probably why ... you saw (prices) accelerate so quickly," said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J. "No, don't get used to these crazy increases."

Retail gas prices have also been following oil futures' record rally, although prices hasn't risen as steeply as oil futures.

"(Gas prices) had a lot of catching up to do," said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla., trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

Crude prices have jumped about 80 percent in one year, while retail gas prices are only up 24 percent in that time.

But Thursday, light, sweet crude for June delivery stalled in its march toward $120 a barrel, falling $2.24 to settle at $116.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts said the dollar's rise against the euro gave investors a chance to lock in profits from oil's recent record run. Investors see commodities such as oil as a less effective hedge against inflation when the dollar strengthens, and a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive to investors overseas.

Analysts believe the dollar is gaining ground on speculation the Federal Reserve is growing concerned about inflation, and may not cut interest rates as much as once thought. Higher interest rates tend to stabilize or strengthen the dollar.

"There's a lot of cry out there right now to stop cutting rates," Cordier said.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, said the resolution of a one-day strike by oil workers in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, also pushed oil prices lower.

But few analysts are willing to predict that oil's record run is over. Investors remain concerned about tight supplies of oil amid growing global demand, they say. Oil production is falling in Russia and Mexico, while "global growth in China, India, Russia and Brazil is tapping additional oil," Cordier said.

That could spell additional records for oil, and more pain for consumers. June crude futures are trading a few dollars below the record high near $120 hit by May crude futures earlier this week; the expiring contract attracted buying from investors scrambling to square bets. But concerns about supplies, or a downturn in the dollar, could easily push crude to $125 or $130 a barrel in short order, Cordier said.

Moreover, "it looks like gasoline's going to hit $3.90 or $4 for driving season," Cordier said.

In other Nymex trading Thursday, May gasoline futures fell 3.21 cents to settle at $3.0186 a gallon, and May heating oil futures fell 6.67 cents to settle at $3.2583 a gallon. May natural gas futures rose 0.9 cent to settle at $10.79 per 1,000 cubic feet. The Energy Department said inventories grew last week by 24 billion cubic feet, less than analysts expected.

In London, June Brent crude futures slid $2.12 to settle at $114.34 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

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